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Choosing the first growth channel for an early startup

Members of the Growth work group compare product-channel fit, 90-day tests, SEO's slow clock and marketplace math.

Updated October 13, 2026

Pick a channel the product can feed, test it with one narrow segment on a set budget and date, and judge it by users who reach value and come back.

  • Let the product draw up the shortlist. Brian Balfour would start from product-channel fit: virality needs a short time to value, user-generated SEO needs users who create useful pages, and paid needs enough revenue per customer to cover acquisition. Casey Winters would shortlist channels by what the product already produces, as Grubhub's restaurant listings and Pinterest's boards did for search.
  • Narrow the customer before the channel. Brian would define one narrow customer group and where it already looks for answers, then watch each person reach first value before the data can show a retention curve. Hila Qu would rank channels by impact, confidence and effort, so SEO can have the biggest upside and still be a poor first test if it can't show results in 90 days. Luc Levesque would write down how first customers discover the problem and test where they already show intent.
  • A short test may not size a channel. Luc would separate the decision to invest from the revenue deadline, since new search content can take a quarter or more to move. Gustaf Alströmer suggests running the smallest test that checks the customer path, then deciding whether a large platform deserves a longer horizon.
  • Cost both sides together, and find where users drop off. For a marketplace, Casey would test both sides of one small market and add up the cost of the restaurant and the diner, since one order has to pay for both. Hila would find where people drop off by channel before calling one a failure.

Group chat with Gustaf, Hila, Luc, Brian, Casey — the Growth work group

Question:

How should an early-stage startup pick its first growth channel?

Casey Winters
Casey WintersCo-founder at SuperMe. Ran growth at Pinterest, Grubhub and Eventbrite
Start with the users who already get value, then work backward to how you can find more of them. Define the action that shows they received value and how often they should repeat it. Check whether retention for that cohort levels off. That tells you which customer to acquire and gives you a way to judge the channel by retained users rather than signups.
I would shortlist channels based on what the product and customer naturally produce. At Grubhub, restaurant listings could become local cuisine pages that matched what people searched for. At Pinterest, users created boards and pins that gave searchers useful landing pages. In each case, the product supplied content that could bring in the next user.review.firstround
Run a small, manual version first. Pick one customer segment and one channel, measure how many people reach the value action, return at the expected frequency, and eventually pay. Then estimate the cost to acquire another such customer against their value. Scale only when that math and cohort quality hold as volume rises.
Luc Levesque
Luc LevesqueFormer Chief Growth Officer at Shopify. Previously Meta and TripAdvisor
At TravelPod, we built a strong product, then found a competitor with a product I thought was poor and an audience roughly ten times ours. Search was doing a lot of the work: even the term "travel blog" mattered enormously, and we sat around number two for a long time. That was my lesson in matching the channel to where customers already show intent.Spotify
So I'd write down how your first customers discover the problem, then pick one channel you can actually reach and measure. If they search for a solution, test a small set of high-intent queries and track qualified visits through activation. If the product naturally prompts users to invite others or publish useful pages, test that loop and measure whether each active user brings in another qualified user. Give the test a fixed budget and a decision date, then judge it by activated customers and repeatable acquisition, rather than clicks alone. A channel earns more investment when the next cohort arrives through the same mechanism and gets value from the product.
Hila Qu 曲卉
Hila Qu 曲卉PLG advisor. Former Director of Growth at GitLab and VP of Growth at Acorns
Start with a narrow ICP, then choose the channel where you can reach that customer and learn quickly. I’ve seen teams confuse a big total market with a broad initial ICP. That makes the message vague and leaves the marketing team chasing customers across industries and company sizes. Nail one segment and make the motion repeatable before expanding.
I would rank candidate channels by potential impact, confidence in reaching that ICP, and how much work it takes to get a useful result. In my first 90-day growth plan, I recommend selecting a focus area where the team can launch an experiment with limited engineering and design work. SEO might have the biggest eventual upside and still be a poor first experiment if meaningful results take longer than the first 90 days. Run one test, keep talking to customers, and record what you learned before committing to a larger channel program.Substack
Gustaf Alströmer
Gustaf AlströmerGeneral Partner at Y Combinator. Previously led growth at Airbnb
Pick the channel that fits how people get value from the product. At Voxer, a new user needed friends already in the app to use a walkie-talkie. We focused on the iOS address book and phone-number matching so people saw friends on their first visit. We spent roughly the first year improving that experience, because an invite that brought someone into an empty app would have missed the point.Apple Podcasts
For a first test, name the customer, the place you can reach them, and the action that shows they got value. Run one small campaign there and track that action and whether those users return, alongside signups and cost. If the product answers a question people already search for, test search. If its value grows when people bring collaborators, test invitations inside the product. The choice should follow the product's use case and a path to many customers. In a growth panel, I argued that companies usually get very good at one large platform rather than every channel.Spotify
Brian Balfour
Brian BalfourFounder/CEO at Reforge. Previously VP Growth at HubSpot
I’d start with Product Channel Fit: pick a channel whose rules your product can satisfy, then shape the product and acquisition path together. Virality needs a short time to value and value that extends across a user’s network. User-generated SEO needs users who have a reason to create many useful, indexable pages. Paid acquisition needs enough revenue per customer to cover acquisition cost. Those conditions narrow the field before you spend money.brianbalfour
The decision is partly a product decision. If referrals depend on users seeing value faster, work on time to value; if SEO depends on useful pages, work on the contribution experience and page quality. The test should show whether that change produces retained users through the same acquisition path on repeated runs. A channel that brings clicks without retained users has yet to earn more investment.
Distribution follows a power law. At a given time, companies with Product Channel Fit often get 70% or more of growth through one channel, so the early goal is to find a repeatable path with room to grow.brianbalfour
Casey Winters
Casey WintersCo-founder at SuperMe. Ran growth at Pinterest, Grubhub and Eventbrite
For a marketplace, validate the first channel on both sides of one small market. Grubhub began by collecting menus in Lincoln Park and showing up when people searched for delivery menus. That brought demand, but gathering menus everywhere was too labor-intensive. We later found it more effective to sign the restaurants that made the local selection useful, then create their listings and use search to bring diners to them.Spotify
The test has a deadline that traffic alone misses. At Grubhub, after signing a restaurant we had about four months to deliver two orders per day before it risked churning. For a new marketplace, I would pick one neighborhood or category, recruit enough supply to make a real choice, and measure whether the chosen demand channel produces repeat orders before the supply churns. If it doesn't, more traffic into a thin market will give you a misleading read on the channel.
Luc Levesque
Luc LevesqueFormer Chief Growth Officer at Shopify. Previously Meta and TripAdvisor
Hila's 90-day learning window is useful, with one nuance for SEO: the clock depends on what already exists. If you have pages ranking on the first search results page, improving those pages can produce a signal quickly. If you have to create new content and earn search trust, a quarter may pass before a meaningful lift appears; I've seen the range run several months.Spotify
I'd separate the decision to invest in the channel from the deadline for revenue impact. In the first weeks, check whether relevant queries exist, whether you can make a page that answers them well, and whether any existing pages gain qualified impressions and visits. Set the larger investment decision for a date that fits the channel's actual feedback cycle. If the startup needs paying customers this month, use a faster direct route to customers while that search test matures.
Gustaf Alströmer
Gustaf AlströmerGeneral Partner at Y Combinator. Previously led growth at Airbnb
Hila's fast experiment and Brian's product-channel fit belong together. A short test should tell you whether customers reach value through the channel; it cannot always tell you how large that channel can become. SEO, for instance, may take sustained product and engineering work before it compounds. I would look for a large platform suited to the product, run the smallest test that checks the customer path, then decide whether the early signal warrants a longer investment. In a growth panel, I argued that the largest companies often become excellent at one platform and that channels with real scale deserve a longer horizon.Spotify
Casey Winters
Casey WintersCo-founder at SuperMe. Ran growth at Pinterest, Grubhub and Eventbrite
One marketplace trap in that test is counting acquisition cost for each side separately. A restaurant and a diner create one transaction, so paying up to the full customer value to acquire each of them spends the same value twice. At Grubhub, we paid sales commissions to acquire restaurants and for demand acquisition, then checked whether the combined economics left enough room: restaurant acquisition paid back in a few months and demand in about four months.Spotify
For a first channel test, track the cost of bringing both sides together in the same local market against the contribution from their actual orders. A cheap diner signup can look attractive while the restaurant recruitment needed to fulfill it makes the market uneconomic.
Hila Qu 曲卉
Hila Qu 曲卉PLG advisor. Former Director of Growth at GitLab and VP of Growth at Acorns
One caution on the channel test: diagnose where people drop off before calling the channel a failure. I map the steps from a visit through sign-up, first use, and repeat use, then compare those rates by channel and customer segment. If qualified visitors sign up and stall before first use, the next test may belong in onboarding or the product experience. If one segment consistently reaches value and returns, that segment is a better basis for another acquisition test.Substack
For a small pre-PMF team, keep that map simple. I’ve argued that building a detailed growth model can consume time better spent improving the product and finding initial users. A few measured steps are enough to tell you whether the channel brought the right people and where the journey broke.Substack
Question:
Brian, Casey suggests judging a first channel by retained users rather than signups. If an early startup has too few users to see a stable retention curve, how would you choose which channel to test first?
Brian Balfour
Brian BalfourFounder/CEO at Reforge. Previously VP Growth at HubSpot
With too few users for a stable retention curve, I would choose the channel using a market and product hypothesis, then use direct observation to decide whether to continue. Define one narrow customer group, the problem that brings them to you, where they already look for an answer, and the shortest path to the product’s value. Qualitative signals are useful at this stage because they require few customers, though they can give false positives.brianbalfour
For HubSpot Sales, we started with individual sales reps who wanted to know whether prospects had opened their emails. The Chrome extension could demonstrate that value in under a minute with an open notification. That gave us a concrete customer path to test and observe before we had enough data to rely on a retention curve.brianbalfour
I’d reach that group through the most plausible one or two paths, watch each person get to first value, and ask what brought them in and whether they would recommend it. Track their return and any direct traffic as the sample grows. Before investing heavily, check Channel Model Fit too: the expected annual revenue per customer has to support the acquisition cost and payback time.brianbalfour

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In This Conversation

  • Gustaf Alströmer
    Gustaf Alströmer

    General Partner at Y Combinator. Previously led growth at Airbnb

  • Hila Qu 曲卉
    Hila Qu 曲卉

    PLG advisor. Former Director of Growth at GitLab and VP of Growth at Acorns

  • Luc Levesque
    Luc Levesque

    Former Chief Growth Officer at Shopify. Previously Meta and TripAdvisor

  • Brian Balfour
    Brian Balfour

    Founder/CEO at Reforge. Previously VP Growth at HubSpot

  • Casey Winters
    Casey Winters

    Co-founder at SuperMe. Ran growth at Pinterest, Grubhub and Eventbrite

See all

Frequently Asked Questions

  • What should a founder check first when growth stalls?

    That the data is right, then cohort retention split by segment and channel. If curves trend toward zero in every slice, fix the product before spending more on acquisition.

  • How do you tell a growth problem from a product problem?

    Bring in a small batch of users from one clean channel and read their cohorts. If they activate and return but there aren't many, it's distribution. If they leave within the first week, product owns the fix.

  • What moves activation in a new user's first few days?

    Find where users drop, then match the lever: pre-answer setup for users who stall, make the first action an earned win for users who feel nothing, and bring back users who got value.

  • Who should own acquisition and retention, growth or marketing?

    Most members would split near signup, with marketing on channels and the promise and growth on the path to first value. The line still has to follow the growth model, and both teams judge channels by the cohorts that stay.

  • Should a growth team report to product or marketing?

    Wherever the biggest lever is. For most product-led companies that is product, next to core rather than inside it, and once paid spend matters too, one growth leader owns acquisition and activation.

  • Which lifecycle emails should a team build first?

    The ones aimed at the steepest drop on the retention curve, usually the activation email. Depth and renewal emails come next, and win-back to fully churned users comes last.

  • How do you bring back signups who went quiet?

    Watch a few try the next step and fix where they stall, then test the message with and without the fix against a holdout, and count retained use rather than opens.

  • When should a product-led company add sales?

    A founder can start working accounts where usage is spreading and retaining. A sales team follows once deals need security reviews and procurement that self-serve can't handle.

  • Which self-serve accounts should a sales rep call?

    Ones big enough to pay for a rep's time, with use spreading inside the company and a need self-serve can't meet. Hold some flagged accounts back to check that sales added value.

  • Which early action should count as activation?

    Use two measures: an early action onboarding can move as the team's operating metric, and a later repeat action to check that those users came back. Randomize the onboarding change so motivated users don't skew the read.

  • What makes a good north star metric for an early product?

    A retention measure built from how often the problem occurs, the action that solves it and the user it describes, with activation as an input. Drop it if the team can raise it without users getting more value.

  • Should a new marketplace build supply or demand first?

    Whichever side gets a buyer to a completed transaction while giving the supplier a reason to stay. Start in one narrow market and track matches, supplier earnings and repeat buyers.

  • When can a marketplace copy its first city?

    When service holds after subsidies come down, a new manager can run the launch playbook without the founders, and the team knows whether the channel behind market one's demand starts warm or cold in the next market.

  • How should you test a landing page?

    Show visitors what they searched for before the ask, start with the page's first clear funnel drop, and count activated users per visitor alongside signups.

  • Should a startup with a few dozen users stop acquisition?

    Stop broad acquisition but keep a small hand-picked flow from one segment, onboard those users live, and count only return visits nobody prompted.

  • How does a B2B startup find its first paying customers?

    Have founders sell by hand to one narrow buyer, starting with warm intros and asking for payment early. Then check who actually paid, and at what price, before choosing a channel to scale.

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