What to do when the search for product-market fit stalls
The Founders work group on bounded tests, fair tests, paying for the search and when to stop.
Updated
Make the next attempt a bounded test: pick the strongest group of users, set a target and a deadline the cash can cover, and decide in advance what a miss means.
- Bound the next attempt. Emmett Shear would pick the strongest group of users found so far, set a usage target and a deadline that fit the cash, and change course on a miss. With no promising group or no runway for a real test, he would return the remaining capital.
- Make the test fair. Ben Silbermann would first define one experience worth someone's time, since a weak first version can make a useful idea look like a failed one. Reid Hoffman would check that the test group had enough people for the product to work. LinkedIn's sparse early network gave each new member little value.
- Talk to the users who return. Ben would learn what returning users rely on the product for and look for more people with that need. Ivan Zhao suggests putting the founder on support, as he did at Notion, and kept Notion's goal while changing the product built around it.
- Know who pays for the search. Emmett describes a third option: make the business pay for its own search, as Justin.tv did by reaching profitability. Reid would put the plan, its cost and a judgment date in front of the team and board, and arrange a responsible transition if the case can't be made.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the signs of product-market fit?
A small group who would be upset to lose the product, then growth you can explain, from users who look like the market you want to win. Fit rarely arrives as one moment.
How is early traction different from product-market fit?
Traction responds to a launch, press or founder effort and fades when that stops. Fit keeps compounding through the product's own loop, and the love repeats with strangers who match the first fans.
How do you pressure-test a startup idea?
Set a behavior bar before the team gets attached, put an early version into someone's real work, and write down the ways the company could fail even if early users love it.
When should a founder drop an idea?
When people who have the problem can find the product, try the full version and still don't come back. Low signups and investor doubt alone are weak reasons to quit.
How do founders find a problem worth solving?
Start from a problem you will care about for years, find people whose behavior shows they have it too, and know why you can make progress where others see risk.
What should a first-time founder do first?
Start, choose a cofounder with care and get something in front of strangers early. The group splits on whether research or a rough product comes first.
How do you size a market before building?
Start from a behavior people already have, ask what has kept anyone from winning the market, and let growth or repeat use tell you its size.
How does a startup stand out in a crowded market?
Pick one experience people return to, start with the people whose choice brings everyone else, and check whether users come back for a second job.
Where can an AI startup win against the model companies?
Around what takes sustained work to copy: a group's accumulated taste, a team's workflow, trust between people or a creator's audience.
How do you validate an idea with customers?
Go out to learn, ship one thing worth a stranger's time, watch who comes back on their own and then ask them why.
How do you choose a consumer products category?
Look for a need people already recognize, evidence that they act on it, and unit economics that work across the whole purchase cycle.


