Pressure-testing a startup idea before you commit
The Founders work group lays out the tests they would run before committing, and what Twitch, Coda, Pinterest, LinkedIn, PayPal and Notion taught them.
Updated
Set a behavior bar before the team gets attached, watch whether people return to a real task, and write down how the company could fail even if early users love it.
- Ask questions that can change the idea. Emmett Shear called 40 to 50 streamers and learned that even a few dollars of income mattered to them, which led Justin.tv to share ad revenue. He would specify in advance what repeat use or growth justifies more time and money.
- Put it into someone's real work. Shishir Mehrotra brought in Coda's first outside customer four months after the team moved its own work into it, and that team's refusal to continue exposed problems internal use had missed. Ivan Zhao would ask someone to finish a familiar task in both the new product and the old one, and watch where they switch back.
- List the ways it could fail. Reid Hoffman would write down two or three ways the company could fail even if early users love it, with a plan and a fallback for each. He would also ask founders to name the next proof point and its date: PayPal moved to the Palm Pilot because a version could work in about six months.
- Test your own commitment. Shishir asks whether you have an idea you can't leave alone and a teammate you can't build it without. Ben Silbermann would give the idea a bounded, serious period of work, then ask whether he still wants the hard parts he has met.
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Founders
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the signs of product-market fit?
A small group who would be upset to lose the product, then growth you can explain, from users who look like the market you want to win. Fit rarely arrives as one moment.
How is early traction different from product-market fit?
Traction responds to a launch, press or founder effort and fades when that stops. Fit keeps compounding through the product's own loop, and the love repeats with strangers who match the first fans.
What should you do when product-market fit isn't coming?
Make the next attempt a bounded test with a target and a deadline the cash can cover, check that the test was fair, and change course on a miss. With no promising group or runway left, return the capital.
When should a founder drop an idea?
When people who have the problem can find the product, try the full version and still don't come back. Low signups and investor doubt alone are weak reasons to quit.
How do founders find a problem worth solving?
Start from a problem you will care about for years, find people whose behavior shows they have it too, and know why you can make progress where others see risk.
What should a first-time founder do first?
Start, choose a cofounder with care and get something in front of strangers early. The group splits on whether research or a rough product comes first.
How do you size a market before building?
Start from a behavior people already have, ask what has kept anyone from winning the market, and let growth or repeat use tell you its size.
How does a startup stand out in a crowded market?
Pick one experience people return to, start with the people whose choice brings everyone else, and check whether users come back for a second job.
Where can an AI startup win against the model companies?
Around what takes sustained work to copy: a group's accumulated taste, a team's workflow, trust between people or a creator's audience.
How do you validate an idea with customers?
Go out to learn, ship one thing worth a stranger's time, watch who comes back on their own and then ask them why.
How do you choose a consumer products category?
Look for a need people already recognize, evidence that they act on it, and unit economics that work across the whole purchase cycle.


