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Dan Hockenmaier

Exploring, writing at danhock.com

366K insights
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About

I’ve spent my whole career growing tech and consumer businesses as an operator, consultant, and investor. I feel really lucky to get to do what I do.

San Francisco, California

Work Experience

Wandering in the Woods at Self Employed

Sep 2026 - Present (1m)

Exploring interesting ideas and companies. Writing at www.danhock.co

Chief Strategy Officer at Faire

2024 - Present (2y 9m)

Faire is an online wholesale marketplace built on the belief that the future is local. We’re always looking for smart, resourceful, and passionate people to join us as we power the shop local movement.

Partner at Reforge

2017 - Present (9y 9m)

Helping build the best way for professionals to level up. Co-created the monetization track: www.reforge.com/monetization-pricing

Chief Strategy Officer at Faire

Aug 2024 - Sep 2026 (2y 1m)

Faire is an online wholesale marketplace built on the belief that the future is local. We’re always looking for smart, resourceful, and passionate people to join us as we power the shop local movement.

Timeline

Dan Hockenmaier

Casey Winters

@onecaseman

You shouldn't need the best network to get the best insights. SuperMe turns operators' work into profiles that work through your problem. Now in group chats, Claude and ChatGPT. @ludo_antonov and I raised a $20M Series A led by @kirstenagreen from @ForerunnerVC with participation from @GreylockVC. Read more about the changes here: https://www.superme.ai/blog/series-a

You shouldn't need the best network to get the best insights. SuperMe turns operators' work into profiles that work through your problem. Now in group chats, Claude and ChatGPT. @ludo_antonov and I raised a $20M Series A led by @kirstenagreen from @ForerunnerVC with participation from @GreylockVC. Read more about the changes here: https://www.superme.ai/blog/series-a
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Dan Hockenmaier

Boardy

@boardyai

even the late hires cleared eight figures

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Dan Hockenmaier

Andrew Benson

@AndrewBenson

Who actually gets rich if Anthropic lists at $2 trillion? The S-1 filed on Monday lets us answer from the filing itself. The reported target is $1.5T to $2T, listing the week of November 16. The filing implies about 16.9B fully diluted shares. So $2T works out to roughly $118 a share. The cap table at $2T: - $199B for the 7 controlling co-founders, about 10% - $28B for Ben Mann, if his stake matches theirs - $100B for the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, 5% - $331B in employee options and RSUs, about 17% , That pool covers about 5,300 employees, an average of $62M each. - But when you joined matters enormously. The S-1 shows how much equity was granted each year, and at what price. [ Headcount went from about 300 to 500 in late 2023, to 940 at end 2024, to 5,300 now. Match the two, and here is roughly how many people made what at $2T: - $110M to $400M each: ~300 to 500 people hired by 2023 - $200M to $300M each: ~440 to 640 hired in 2024 - $70M to $95M each: ~1,360 hired in 2025 - $10M to $20M each: ~3,000 hired in 2026 So about 940 people hired by the end of 2024 average nine figures. Everyone hired since averages eight figures. The 2024 class is the surprise. That year Anthropic granted 1.28B options at $1.30 a share. At $118, that one year of grants is worth about $133B. Then there is the tender. In April, holders could sell at $25.91 a share. Investors lined up $6B, but only $4.7B sold. Weeks later, Series H priced at $58.90 a share. At $2T, the people who held would be up 4.6x. And Dario and Daniela Amodei were among the sellers. The 7 founders have pledged 80% of their equity to charity. That is about $159B at $2T. But the S-1 says the pledges are not legally binding.

Who actually gets rich if Anthropic lists at $2 trillion? The S-1 filed on Monday lets us answer from the filing itself. The reported target is $1.5T to $2T, listing the week of November 16. The filing implies about 16.9B fully diluted shares. So $2T works out to roughly $118 a share. The cap table at $2T: - $199B for the 7 controlling co-founders, about 10% - $28B for Ben Mann, if his stake matches theirs - $100B for the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, 5% - $331B in employee options and RSUs, about 17% , That pool covers about 5,300 employees, an average of $62M each. - But when you joined matters enormously. The S-1 shows how much equity was granted each year, and at what price. [ Headcount went from about 300 to 500 in late 2023, to 940 at end 2024, to 5,300 now. Match the two, and here is roughly how many people made what at $2T: - $110M to $400M each: ~300 to 500 people hired by 2023 - $200M to $300M each: ~440 to 640 hired in 2024 - $70M to $95M each: ~1,360 hired in 2025 - $10M to $20M each: ~3,000 hired in 2026 So about 940 people hired by the end of 2024 average nine figures. Everyone hired since averages eight figures. The 2024 class is the surprise. That year Anthropic granted 1.28B options at $1.30 a share. At $118, that one year of grants is worth about $133B. Then there is the tender. In April, holders could sell at $25.91 a share. Investors lined up $6B, but only $4.7B sold. Weeks later, Series H priced at $58.90 a share. At $2T, the people who held would be up 4.6x. And Dario and Daniela Amodei were among the sellers. The 7 founders have pledged 80% of their equity to charity. That is about $159B at $2T. But the S-1 says the pledges are not legally binding.
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Dan Hockenmaier

jeza

@jezamancenido

half joking but also i wonder if this could get replaced with short form video pitches for annual planning, QBRs, "roadmaps" (as far as we can have have them) so people with the short form media production skill get to rule them all can you IMAGINE

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Dan Hockenmaier

Yogesh Pandey

@yogeshp_x

Bezos's point was that the memo shape forces you to decide what matters more than what. Models produce that shape for free now, so a doc can look like someone did the ranking when nobody did.

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