We are so overloaded, we can’t even take your money! This is going to drive people to open models hosted with on-demand compute.

I agree the market will mature, but that actually reinforces the concern. If on-demand utilization were already a dependable worst-case outcome, operators would not need long-term take-or-pay contracts to finance these builds. The lender is underwriting cash flow over the next 36–48 months, not today’s supply shortage. And “demand greatly exceeds supply, so everyone is rushing to build” is exactly how shortages become gluts. By the time all that capacity comes online, pricing, demand, hardware competitiveness, and customer credit quality may look very different. We saw this with H100's about 2 years ago. Price spiked, then dropped as more came online. Eventually, better scoring, insurance, and guarantees may make secondary-market risk easier to price. But until then, resale-dependent contracts should not be treated as equivalent to durable off-take. The bumpy transition is not something to ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ off. It is the exact credit event the lender should be underwriting.

I don't understand how there can be these insane AI valuations at the same time as Bending Spoons being sold for less than 1/10th of its peak valuation. Any VCs care to explain?